How do you build CRO hypotheses from heatmap and session recording data?

Short answer: Heatmaps and session recordings do not answer questions by themselves; they are raw material for testable hypotheses. The method: find recurring friction patterns in behavior data, then convert each pattern into one hypothesis sentence containing observation, proposed change, expected effect, and measurement plan.

Step-by-step method

• Segment recordings by device, traffic source, and new versus returning visitors; unsegmented patterns mislead.
• Code friction signals: rage clicks, elements that look clickable, abandoned form fields, dead scroll zones.
• Cross-check every signal in GA4: does the funnel report show the same drop you saw in the recording?
• Use a hypothesis template: observation, change, affected metric, and mechanism in a single sentence.
• Prioritize with ICE or PIE scoring and move the strongest candidates into an A/B test.

Only the experiment proves impact: heatmaps generate ideas, while a controlled test measured against a baseline makes the decision.